Science frequently works on the first try.

The VERY first time anyone scientifically tested whether feathers would fall at the same rate as rocks, Galileo got the answer that's never been contradicted by observation (ca. 1600). The VERY first time anyone gathered the relevant evidence and looked at it, William Smith correctly deduced all the basics of geology (ca. 1800). The very FIRST time anyone applied calculus to Kepler's Laws (which were really only observations), Isaac Newton deduced and proved all the basic (non-relaivistic) facts of gravity. Look at the evidence, and you can see the truth.
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